Washington, D.C. – August 29, 2024 – The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released its Employment Projections for 2023-2033, forecasting the addition of 6.7 million jobs over the decade, bringing total employment to 174.6 million. This represents a 0.4 percent annual growth rate, a notable slowdown from the 1.3 percent annual growth recorded from 2013 to 2023. The projections, published on August 29, 2024, highlight key trends in population, labor force, and industry shifts, with healthcare, technology, and renewable energy emerging as major drivers of job growth.
Population and Labor Force Dynamics
The civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and older is projected to grow by 16.4 million to 283.3 million by 2033, a slower increase compared to the 21.4 million added from 2013 to 2023. This 0.6 percent annual growth rate marks the slowest population growth since the BLS began tracking this data, driven by declining fertility rates and higher growth in older age groups less likely to participate in the workforce. As a result, the labor force participation rate is expected to decline from 62.6 percent in 2023 to 61.2 percent in 2033, with men’s participation continuing a long-term decline and women’s participation edging down from its 1999 peak.
Industry Employment Trends
The healthcare and social assistance sector is projected to lead job growth, adding 2.3 million jobs and growing at 1.0 percent annually, fueled by an aging population and increasing prevalence of chronic conditions like heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. The professional, scientific, and technical services sector, driven by demand for IT services such as computer systems design, is expected to be the fastest-growing sector. The information sector (+0.7 percent annually) and utilities (+0.6 percent) will also see growth, with the latter boosted by demand for electricity from electric vehicles and data centers, alongside a shift to renewable energy sources like solar and wind.
Conversely, retail trade is the only sector projected to decline, with a -0.2 percent annual growth rate, as e-commerce continues to reduce demand for in-person retail jobs. However, this shift is driving growth in transportation and warehousing (+0.6 percent) due to increased online purchases. Slower population growth, particularly among school-age children, is expected to reduce demand for private educational services and state and local government jobs, including public education.
Occupational Employment Outlook
Healthcare-related occupations are set to dominate job growth. Healthcare support occupations, such as home health and personal care aides, are projected to grow the fastest at 15.2 percent, adding significant jobs due to the needs of an aging population. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, including nurse practitioners and physician assistants, will grow at 8.6 percent, supporting team-based healthcare systems to meet rising demand. Community and social service occupations, such as counselors for substance abuse and family support, are expected to grow at 8.1 percent.
Computer and mathematical occupations, including information security analysts, are projected to grow at 12.9 percent, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), data analysis, and cybersecurity needs amid rising cyberattacks. However, technological advancements, including AI and automation, are expected to limit growth in sales and administrative support roles, contributing to employment declines in these areas.
Renewable energy occupations, such as wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic installers, are projected to be the fastest-growing individual occupations, though they will add fewer than 20,000 jobs combined. Construction and extraction occupations (+5.6 percent) and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (+5.3 percent) will also see steady growth, supported by infrastructure demands.
New Occupational Skills Data
For the first time, the BLS has introduced tables detailing skills by occupation, providing insights into the competencies required for various roles. This new data, part of the 2023-2033 projections cycle, will be further explored in a forthcoming Monthly Labor Review article, offering valuable information for job seekers, educators, and employers aligning training with market needs.
Navigating a Changing Labor Market
The BLS emphasizes that these projections focus on long-term structural trends rather than short-term economic fluctuations, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in predicting labor market changes. The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), available online at www.bls.gov/ooh, provides detailed profiles for over 500 occupations, covering 80 percent of U.S. jobs, with information on job outlooks, wages, and education requirements. These resources, alongside state-level projections at www.projectionscentral.org, are widely used by students, job seekers, policymakers, and organizations to align education and training with labor market demands.
Conclusion
The 2023-2033 Employment Projections highlight a U.S. labor market shaped by demographic shifts, technological advancements, and evolving consumer behaviors. While healthcare and technology sectors are poised for robust growth, challenges like declining retail jobs and a slowing labor force participation rate underscore the need for strategic workforce planning. As the U.S. navigates these changes, resources like the OOH and new skills data will be critical for preparing workers and employers for the opportunities ahead.
For more details, visit the BLS Employment Projections page at www.bls.gov/emp or explore the Occupational Outlook Handbook at www.bls.gov/ooh.
Leave a Comment